Author

Resmawan

Subject

- Sains

Abstract

The study was aimed to introduce a new model construction regarding the transmission of Coronavirus Disease (henceforth, COVID-19) in human population. The mathematical model was constructed by taking into consideration several epidemiology parameters that are closely identical with the real condition. The study further conducted an analysis of the model by identifying the endemicity parameters of COVID-19, i.e., the presence of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) point and basic reproductive number. The next step was to carry out a sensitivity analysis to find out which parameter is the most dominant to affect the disease’s endemicity. The results revealed that the parameters ????, ????????????, ????, and ???? in sequence showed the most dominant sensitivity index towards the basic reproductive number. Moreover, the results indicated a positive index in parameters ???? and ???????????? that represented transmission chances during contact as well as contact rate between susceptible individuals and exposed individuals. This suggests that an increase in the previous parameter value could potentially enlarge the endemicity of COVID-19. On the other hand, parameters ???? and ????, representing the movement rate of exposed individuals to the quarantine class and the proportion of quarantined exposed individuals, showed a negative index. The numbers indicate that an increase in the parameter value could decrease the disease’s endemicity. All in all, the study concludes that treatments for COVID 19 should focus on the restriction of interaction between individuals and the optimization of quarantine.

Publisher

CAUCHY

Contributor

Resmawan Resmawan; Lailany Yahya

Publish

2020

Material Type

ARTIKEL

Right

-