Researcher

Herlina Jusuf

Types of research

Insentif Jurnal Internasional Bereputasi (PNBP)

Source of funds

PNBP/BLU

Abstract

Time series modelling is not linear, one of which is a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). HIV – AIDS is a serious issue on the health problems of the world currently and the future because the number of sufferer up increasing and not found vaccines and drugs for the prevention. Cases if HIV – AIDS in East Java is the data series, and in MARS modelling needed in input. The purpose of this research is to determine the optimum input of the data series, and as criterion is the smallest GCV value. The result shows that significant lags on PACF is optimal input MARS modelling, because results the smallest GCV value. Prediction of the number of HIV – AIDS sufferer is affected by the number of sufferer one, seven, and twelve previous period. Prediction of HIV – AIDS with MARS modelling better than ARIMA.